The UK will be able to supply enough energy to meet demand during the coming summer, even with a ‘no-deal Brexit’

March 28, 2019

That’s according to National Grid Electricity System Operator’s annual summer outlook report which anticipates that gas and electricity demand will be similar to that of summer 2018.

The organisation state that they That’s according to National Grid Electricity System Operator’s annual summer outlook report which anticipates that gas and electricity demand will be similar to that of summer 2018. National Grid claim they have the right tools and services available to manage operability for the coming summer, particularly during periods of low demand, or when access requirements increase for delivery of key maintenance work.

They anticipate no additional operability challenges for this coming summer as a result of the UK’s planned exit from the EU. They outline that they have tested their planning assumptions in a broad range of scenarios and via engagement with industry. These scenarios fall within their normal contingency planning.

Potential impacts concerning interconnector trading are outlined below:

1. Currently when electricity is traded over interconnectors with connected markets in the EU a day ahead of real time, this is done using implicit arrangements. This makes trading faster and more efficient. In the case of a no deal exit from the European Union, these arrangements would no longer apply, and interconnectors would have to move to fallback arrangements.

2. In all scenarios trading will continue, and electricity will flow. It is expected to flow from lower to higher priced markets as is the case at the moment.

3. In a no deal scenario, the mechanisms of cross-border gas trade are not expected to fundamentally change. Gas shippers mostly purchase energy and capacity separately, and there would be no change from this in the event of a no deal exit from the EU. The UK’s Transmission System Operators (TSO’s) expect to have continued access to the Prisma gas capacity trading platform to allocate capacity at interconnection points.

4. Should the UK leave the EU with no deal, cross border trading of energy would take place outside of the single market framework, i.e. under World Trade Organisation rules for the majority of countries, where no free trade agreement has been negotiated. Furthermore, as is the case now, flows on both gas and electricity inter-connectors may also be impacted by fluctuations in currency exchange rates.

You can read the full Summer Outlook Report here.

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